Manhattan, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

429
FXUS63 KTOP 282319
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
619 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect today through Friday.

- Expect daily afternoon heat indices reaching 100-110 degrees
  through Saturday.

- Minimal chances for rain/storms, but best (20%) chances may come
Tuesday evening and Wednesday evening across far north-central KS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Hot and humid is the name of the game over the next week as upper
ridging builds over the southeastern and central US. Across the
region, southwesterly mid-level flow still persists over much of the
high Plains and has helped to push a strong surface low across
Nebraska. This has led to tight pressure gradients and downsloping
flow across much of Kansas with very warm 700mb temperatures
advecting northeast as noted on low level water vapor imagery. In
response, winds gusting upwards of 30 mph and temperatures in the low
90s are already common across eastern and central KS as of noon.
Expect windy and very warm/humid conditions to persist through the
afternoon and evening as heat indices top out in the 105-110 degree
range.

Over the course of the week, minimal changes will come as the dome
of ridging dominates the east-central US with Kansas on the western
periphery of the ridge. This will keep warm, southerly flow over the
region each day this week. Heat indices through the week will range
from 100-110 degrees as air temperatures top out in the mid to upper
90s. There will be a few low-end chances (10-20%) for rain/storms
across far north-central KS Tuesday and Wednesday evening that may
help to mute temperatures a bit. Dry and hot temperatures return
Thursday and Friday with afternoon high temperatures reaching the
mid to upper 90s. Along with hot afternoon conditions, minimal
relief will be felt overnight as temperatures will only fall into
the mid to upper 70s. Confidence for the extreme heat continuing
into the weekend continues to increase as long range guidance pushes
the dome of high pressure further west over the Central US. This
would likely result in temperatures rising further, topping out in
the upper 90s and possibly the low 100s. Given no change in airmass,
surface Tds still in the low 70s will keep heat indicies Saturday in
the 105-110 degree range. The only glimmer of hope in slightly
cooler temperatures comes with a weak mid-level wave Sunday into
Monday that tries to push a weak boundary across the area. This is
reflected in ensemble temperatures spreads Sunday into Monday being
6-8 degrees as opposed to the 1-3 degree spreads we will see over
this coming week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

South winds stay fairly strong tonight and through tomorrow,
sustained around 15 kts with gusts 25-30 kts at times. Can`t rule out
some LLWS overnight if winds can briefly calm more than expected, but
for the most part the gusty winds will preclude LLWS. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will continue.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Record Warmest Low Temperature

June 28
              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          80 (2018)         76
Concordia       80 (1931)         77

June 29
              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          81 (2018)         79
Concordia       79 (1990)         80

June 30
              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          77 (2020)         79
Concordia       79 (2011)         78

July 1
              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          82 (1933)         76
Concordia       86 (1933)         76

July 2
              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          78 (1925)         76
Concordia       78 (1974)         75

July 3
              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          79 (2012)         77
Concordia       80 (1934)         75

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Reese
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Griesemer